By Dr. Vishnu Bisram
Republican candidate Donald Trump defeated his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton for the Presidency on Tuesday in what has been one of the most bitter and divisive U.S. election campaigns in history. The Trump victory was shocking as almost every analyst and opinion poll expected a Clinton victory.
Trump campaigned on a narrow, divisive anti-immigrant, xenophobic and American nationalistic agenda. And it was bought by a majority of American voters. He was the anti-politics candidate that Americans embraced. Given his anti-immigrant position, it is natural for immigrants to have jitters over a Trump victory especially so considering the many threats he made to deport illegal immigrants.
So what does his victory mean for Guyanese and other immigrant communities in the U.S. and for relations with the Caribbean region in general?
It is well known that most Guyanese and Caribbean nationals in the U.S. preferred Hillary Clinton and had expected a Democratic victory although some were supportive of Trump. In fact, as I moved around in the greater Richmond Hill area and Jamaica and parts of Queens as well as Cypress Hills and other sections of Brooklyn, on elections day, I observed heavy voter turnout among Guyanese Americans.
In conversations, they indicated they voted by a lopsided margin in favour of Democrat Clinton over Republican Trump. Other Caribbean Americans reveal a similar trend. Clinton had over 90 percent of the Guyanese and Caribbean American votes. Hillary was also winning a huge majority of Asians and Indian Americans and Hispanics.
But there were some other West Indians, including a few Guyanese who felt the country needed a shake-up and thought Donald was the man for the job. They decided to give him a chance; and he has won. So it is not that immigrants did not support Trump. In fact, a large segment of Indian Americans supported Trump campaigning for him and donating tens of millions of dollars to his campaign. Trump owes them and as such he is not likely to pursue policies that will hurt immigrant communities supportive of him.
It is my view that not much will change in terms of the status of Guyanese in the U.S. or relations with Guyana. The status quo will largely prevail in terms of foreign relations and trade with the Caribbean region and that there will not be significant change in policy on immigration matters.
Immigration amnesty will be off the table, and as such those tens of thousands of illegal or undocumented Guyanese and Caribbean nationals (among some 11 million) will see their hopes to obtain legal status in the U.S. shattered. Illegals could be deported if caught and those illegals serving time in jail will have their deportations expedited – this will have consequences on internal security. But family sponsorship will not be affected and issuance of visitors’ visa in Georgetown will continue.
Further, there could be an open immigration policy for skilled personnel (STEM) as Trump had advocated for limiting unskilled immigrants and increasing the inflow of scientists and engineers and technical experts. Foreign students will continue to be welcomed.
Trump will be pro-business and anti-regulation. He would favour an open-door policy and offer incentives for American businesses to return operations in America rather than invest in low cost labour nations.
There are hardly any major American investments in Guyana; so Guyana will not be seriously affected in terms of business divestment. Trade policy will not be affected and at any rate Guyana and the Caribbean region has insignificant volume of trade with the U.S. in terms of dollar amounts or a percentage of U.S. trade.
Also, security cooperation will continue. Support for anti-terrorist activities will continue. AID policy will continue although there could be a reduction in aid given a stalled American economy. But Trump would toughen up conditions on AID that could be tied to a crackdown on drug trafficking. All of this will redound to the benefit of Guyana and the Caribbean region in the long run.
