Jamaican Change

It was the surprise of the year for Jamaicans and the rest of the Caribbean. All the “smart money” – especially the polls and the newspapers – was on the Jamaican Labour Party (JLP) to be returned to office in their year-end elections. The JLP held a 32-28 seat advantage over their arch rival People’s National Party (PNP) and had selected a new and youthful leader only two months ago. But the voters had other ideas.

While most analysts had focused on the state of the economy as the major issue, it is now clear that the “Dudus Affair” had not evaporated as the JLP had hoped. Back in 2009, now convicted drug dealer Christopher “Dudus” Coke had faced narcotics and arms trafficking charges in the U.S., which then requested his extradition. The incumbent JLP under the leadership of Bruce Golding – only two years in office – balked.

Months later Golding had to eat humble pie when he accepted that he had been involved in efforts to prevent the Dudus extradition.

By May of last year, he had to eventually comply with the U. S. request and send troops into Dudus stronghold, which was more importantly a bastion of JLP. Almost eighty persons were killed. Golding lost the support of his party’s backers and he had to step aside. The selection of 39-year-old Andrew Holness as his successor was intended to signal the voters that a new dispensation was in place.

It would be interesting to find out whether Golding’s moves in the Dudus affair turned off his own supporters more than those of the fence-sitters or the opposition. Jamaica’s politics has long been dominated by patronage and Dudus was an integral part of the patronage system in the Tivoli Gardens section of Kingston that was in Golding’s constituency.

Dudus was a hero to many. It was the first time in modern Jamaican history that an incumbent party did not serve two consecutive terms.

All of the foregoing is not to claim that economics did not loom high on the voters’ agenda. The Jamaican economy has been inexorably plummeting in the wake of the financial crisis in the northern economies. The key tourism industry has never really recovered and the downturn in the bauxite and sugar sectors added to Jamaica’s economic woes. The JLP government was forced to turn to the IMF to secure a US$ 1.27 billion loan to tide them over. As usual, however, the IMF insisted that an austerity programme – which involved massive layoffs in the public sector – be implemented.

In addition to the unemployment jumping from 9.9 per cent in 2007 to 12.9 per cent by the time of the election, services were cut to the bone and created great dissatisfaction among all sections of the populace. Even though the new government has promised during the campaign to secure foreign investment to create jobs, the new leader, Portia Simpson Miller’s PNP government is not going to have much breathing space to stimulate the economy.

With its US$ 18.6 billion debt burden – 130 per cent of its GDP – Jamaica is one of the most indebted countries in the world. Even though it is the party of the radical Michael Manley of the 1970s, Simpson Miller is expected to follow the middle-of-the-road policies of her predecessor. Traditionally, the JLP has been more supportive of Caricom and the regional integration movement, but the lopsided nature of Jamaica’s trade deficit with T&T is certain to place some strain on both the common market and single economy ideals and dreams.

Portia Simpson Miller had been prime minister between 2006 and 2007 when she became embroiled in a financial scandal surrounding campaign contributions. She did not demonstrate any noticeable inclination to buckle down and confronted Jamaica’s formidable problems head on. The old populist rhetoric might have gotten her elected, but will leave the fundamental needs unaddressed. Additionally, we hope that she does not pander to isolationist pressures.