Jagdeo’s call timely

The discourse on the impact of climate change on the world and the need for urgent action by all players is gaining momentum. Our own former president, Bharrat Jagdeo has been a major voice on the international stage, providing global leadership in the climate change battle. Just a few days ago, he was invited by the Commonwealth secretary general to lead an expert group on climate finance to identify solutions to enable small, poor, and climate-vulnerable Commonwealth countries fight climate change.

In Jagdeo’s view, a combination of robust analytics, proof of action, and an informed and critical mass of countries advocating for systemic, international policy change can transform global policies into becoming a reality rather than a vision.

Recently, the World Bank, a global institution with a tremendous amount of power and financial leverage, issued a new scientific report which supports what Jagdeo has been saying all along. The findings contained in the report titled, “Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience”, should serve as a wakeup call once more for those who have become complacent or have reneged on their commitments made to tackle the climate change phenomenon.

The report certainly takes the climate discussion to the next level, building on a 2012 World Bank report that concluded from a global perspective that without a clear mitigation strategy and effort, the world is headed for average temperatures of 4oC warmer than pre-industrial times by the end of this century.

The report states that communities around the world are already feeling the impact of climate change, with the planet only 0.8oC warmer than in pre-industrial times. It says that many of us could experience the harsher impacts of a 2oC warmer world within our lifetimes – 20 to 30 years from now – and a 4oC temperature rise is likely by the end of the century if global action is not taken urgently.

The research, based on scientific analysis by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, uses advanced computer simulations to paint the clearest picture of each region’s vulnerabilities. It describes the risks to agriculture and livelihood security in Sub-Saharan Africa, the rise in sea level, loss of coral reefs and devastation to coastal areas likely in South East Asia, and the fluctuating water resources in South Asia that can lead to flooding in some areas and water scarcity in others, as well as affecting power supply.

For example, in Sub-Saharan Africa, the researchers found food security will be the overarching challenge, with dangers from droughts, flooding, and shifts in rainfall. Between 1.5° C and 2° C warming, drought and aridity will contribute to farmers losing 40-80 per cent of cropland conducive to growing maize, millet, and sorghum by the 2030s to 2040s.

Similarly, in South East Asia, coastal cities will be under intense stress due to climate change. A sea level rise of 30 centimetre, possible by 2040 if business as usual continues, would cause massive flooding in cities and inundate low-lying cropland with saltwater corrosive to crops. Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, a global rice producer, is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise. A 30 cm sea level rise there could result in the loss of about 11 per cent of crop production. At the same time, storm intensity is likely to increase.

Further, inconsistencies in the monsoon season and unusual heat extremes will affect crops. Loss of snow melt from the Himalayas will reduce the flow of water into the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra basins. Together, they threaten to leave hundreds of millions of people without enough water, food, or access to reliable energy. Bangladesh and the Indian cities of Kolkata and Mumbai will be confronted with increased flooding, intense cyclones, sea-level rise, and warming temperatures.

The World Bank on its part has committed to providing support for vulnerable countries. This includes helping them develop strategic plans and investment pipelines that integrate the risks and opportunities of climate change; providing the tools that countries and cities need to better assess and adapt to climate change, including greenhouse gas emissions tracking, energy use and efficiency assessments, and assessments of resilience; creating best practices and norms through its projects for making infrastructure resilient; and using its convening power, financial leverage, and targeted climate funds to increase support for clean energy, low-carbon development, and climate resilience.

It is clear that Jagdeo’s call for there to be stronger political will to tackle climate change must be taken seriously. We therefore join the call for countries to deploy their individual and collective powers to address, what he described as a continued global failure of policy, without which, financing and innovation cannot be properly achieved at the pace required.