IMF projects 5.5 per cent growth for Guyana

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 5.5 per cent this year for Guyana – several points higher than the forecasts of the government and the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
ECLAC, last month, pegged Guyana’s economic outlook for this year at 4.9 per cent as against government’s forecast of 5.3 per cent. The Guyanese economy grew by 4.8 per cent last year, 5.4 per cent in 2011, and 4.4 per cent in 2010.
The IMF is projecting also a six per cent growth for next year.

Meanwhile, the global lender said that growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is set to pick up from three per cent in 2012 to 3.5 per cent in 2013, supported by stronger external demand, favourable financing conditions, and the effects of earlier policy easing in some countries.
In its “Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere”, released on May 6 in Montevideo, Uruguay, the IMF said that external risks to the near-term outlook have receded. Policy actions in the euro area and the United States have removed immediate threats to global growth and financial stability, the report said.
That said, in the United States, failure to replace the automatic fiscal spending cuts (“the sequester”) with more back-loaded measures before the start of the next fiscal year (in October) would affect growth in late 2013 and beyond. Lower U.S. growth would have a negative impact on the region, particularly in Mexico and Central America, where links through trade and remittances are the strongest.
Mounting risks
According to the report, medium-term risks for Latin America remain tilted to the downside. The key risk is a reversal of the favourable tailwinds of easy financing conditions and strong commodity prices that have prevailed since 2010. The region would be particularly affected if a sharp slowdown in China or other key economies triggers a drop in commodity prices. Another risk is that lack of progress in addressing the medium-term fiscal challenges in key advanced economies would lead to a sharp increase in sovereign and corporate risk premiums.
Domestically, the risk of a deterioration of external and financial sector balance sheets has increased in some countries. Current account balances have weakened in recent years, and asset prices are on the rise. Credit growth has moderated, but remains high in a number of countries.
The report reaffirmed its earlier message that countries in the region should take advantage of the current favourable economic conditions to build a strong foundation for sustained growth in the future. Policy priorities include building stronger fiscal buffers, improving policy frameworks, and pressing ahead with structural reforms to increase productivity and potential growth.
Growth in the financially-integrated economies in 2013 is projected at about 4.25 per cent. For these countries, the IMF pointed out that the key policy priorities are to strengthen public finances and protect financial sector stability. Stronger public balance sheets would help ease pressure on capacity constraints and arrest the widening of current account deficits.
Growth in the other commodity exporters is expected to increase to 4.6 per cent in 2013, from 3.3 per cent in 2012. However, in the large energy exporters (Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela), growth is projected to moderate. The IMF said these countries would benefit from saving a much larger share of their commodity revenues.
Average growth in Central America is expected to remain close to potential in 2013. Looking ahead, the report said that gradual tightening of fiscal policy in these countries would be necessary to reduce fiscal and external imbalances and ensure debt sustainability. In much of the Caribbean, high debt and weak competitiveness will continue to constrain growth. These economies are projected to grow by about 1.25 per cent in 2013 (from 0.5 per cent in 2012), as external demand strengthens gradually. The key challenges for these countries remain broadly unchanged – reducing high public debt, containing external imbalances, and reducing financial sector vulnerabilities.