By Vishnu Bisram
Many Guyanese Americans are following the current campaign for assembly elections for five states in India, the last set of elections before general elections (likely in May in the hot summer).
Indeed, Guyanese Americans met with a minister of India last week as well as representatives of the opposition parties to discuss issues impacting Indians in the diaspora. This writer is heading for India this week for the elections – to interview politicians and the public on their prognosis on the outcome.
Observers feel the outcome of the election is a precursor of what may occur in the general election. Dissatisfaction with the Congress at the center automatically translates into votes for the BJP. But there are other factors (like vote splitting, internal divisions, bribery of voters, etc.) impacting on the outcome as well apathy with voters being fed up of politicians who make promises but don’t deliver on them.
In all the states, the most compelling issues are corruption and inflation with people viewing politicians as self serving and arrogant. People generally tend to vote against incumbents but may give the BJP another chance in states it governed because of the scandals that have been plaguing the ruling Congress at the Center.
However, there are concerns that the voting machines being used to cast ballots could be manipulated producing a result that does not reflect the wishes of the voters.
Also, a third party has entered the fray that could upset the predicted outcome – the anti-Congress vote is split with the Aam Aadmi party (AAP); it is the first time the party is being tested in an election and it has decided to contest only in Delhi and it has been attracting huge crowds because of its anti-corruption and pro-women position.
Opinion polls show the BJP ahead in all of the states as well as for the national election. In Delhi, the AAP is running second with some analysts saying it could even beat the BJP. Many Indo-Guyanese and other Indian Americans I surveyed are hoping the BJP wins the election with many of them focusing attention on Delhi which votes on Thursday.
Delhi is a small state compared with others being allocated only seven MPs but it is a critical state. In previous elections, whichever party controlled Delhi controlled the national government.
The Congress has been in charge of Delhi for the last 15 years and the federal government for the last ten years. AAP promises to root out money power and deliver clean and efficient governance in Delhi and devolve power to the local communities. It promises that if it wins, it will take its message nationally.
Delhi has been transformed from an urban-like village to a sprawling, glitzy metropolis with skyscrapers similar to parts of New York. It also boasts a fine network of roads and flyovers and a metro rail service used by almost a million daily.
But traffic congestion is still a problem because it has millions of vehicles and motorcycles on the road. The city used to be plagued by power outages but in recent years, there has been a steady flow of electricity although businesses still retain back up power generators.
Progress is credited to the Congress although it was the BJP that had laid out the development plan when it governed Delhi for over a decade.
People view politicians in the Delhi state government as self-serving and arrogant, with little interest in the welfare of the people. It is noted that in 1998, the BJP lost to the Congress because of runaway onion prices. And now, it is the Congress’s turn to feel the heat on high food inflation including the shortage of onions.
In India, governments are known to collapse when onions were scarce – a staple in the Indian diet. The late Indira Gandhi was known to campaign with malas made of onion hung around her neck. Her daughter-in-law, the Italian born Sonia, did the same in 1998 against the BJP and won a landslide. The BJP and AAP have made onion scarcity a campaign issue.
The latest poll predicted that the BJP would emerge as the single largest party. The survey placed the AAP on third position after Congress. Analysts, observers and voters I spoke with endorse this projection. The survey also found BJP’s Dr. Harsh Vardhan to be the most preferred candidate for Chief Minister, closely followed by AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal.
People say Sheila Dixit has been there too long and time for a new face. Guyanese who follow the elections say they will be most pleased if BJP wins because it has shown the greatest interest in Indians in the diaspora like Indo-Guyanese.
