Latin America and the Caribbean face annual damages in the order of US$ 100 billion by 2050 from diminishing agricultural yields, disappearing glaciers, flooding, droughts and other events triggered by a warming planet, according to the findings of a new report to be released at the Rio+20 summit.
On the positive side, the cost of investments in adaptation to address these impacts is much smaller, in the order of one 10th the physical damages, according to the study jointly produced by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB); the Economic Commission of Latin America; and the Caribbean (ECLAC); and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF).
However, the study also notes that forceful reductions in global emissions of greenhouse gases are needed to avert some of the potentially catastrophic longer term consequences of climate change. The report estimates that countries would need to invest an additional US$ 110 billion per year over the next four decades to decrease per capita carbon emissions to levels consistent with global climate stabilisation goals.
“Many climate-related changes are irreversible and will continue to impact the region over the long term,” said Walter Vergara, the IDB’s division chief of climate change and sustainability and the lead researcher of the study, whose preliminary findings were presented in Washington on Tuesday at an event jointly hosted by the IDB and the Centre for American Progress (CAP). “To prevent further damages, adaptation is necessary but not enough. Bolder actions are needed to bend the emissions curve in the coming decades.”
Region especially vulnerable
Latin America and the Caribbean contribute only 11 per cent of the emissions that cause global warming.
However, countries are especially vulnerable to its effects, given the region’s dependence on natural resources, an infrastructure network that is susceptible to climate events, and the presence of bio-climate hotspots such as the Amazon basin, the Caribbean coral biome, coastal wetlands, and fragile mountain eco-systems.
Estimated yearly damages in Latin America and the Caribbean caused by the physical impacts associated with a rise of 2C degrees over pre-industrial levels are of the order of US$ 100 billion by 2050, or about two per cent of GDP at current values, according to the report titled “The Climate and Development Challenge for Latin America and the Caribbean: Options for Climate Resilient Low Carbon Development.”
The study cites climate impacts in areas such as agriculture, exposure to tropical diseases and changing rainfall patterns, among others. For instance, the report cites recent work estimating the loss of net agricultural exports in the region valued at between US$ 30 billion and US$ 52 billion in 2050.
Mexico and Brazil have the largest land distribution just above sea level, making those countries vulnerable to rising sea levels. A rise of one metre in the sea level could affect 6.700 kilometres of roads and cause extensive flooding and coastal damage. A 50 per cent loss of the coral cover in the Caribbean from coral bleaching would cost at least US$ 7 billion to the economies in the region.
The study notes that the adaptation costs are a small fraction of the costs of physical impacts, conservatively estimated at 0.2 per cent of GDP for the region, at current values.
In addition, adaptation efforts would have significant development benefits, from enhanced water and food security to improved air quality and less vehicular congestion, further reducing their net costs.
“Investments in adaptation are cost effective and have substantial co-benefits” said ECLAC Climate Change Unit Chief Luis Miguel Galindo, a key contributor to the study.
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